Will the junta heed Obama?

If the government of Burma is truly serious about staging an election next year, it must seriously consider the words and actions of US President Barack Obama.

In the first confrontation by a US leader with Burmese dictators in 43 years, Mr Obama sent two messages at once. He said the generals must free their political prisoners, first and foremost Aung San Suu Kyi. He then made it clear that the new US approach to Burma has clear limits; the sanctions on the military regime will stay in place.

The meeting between Mr Obama and Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein was not particularly dramatic. For one thing, it took place behind closed doors, during the annual summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum last weekend in Singapore. For another, it was not a face-to-face meeting. The reference to Burma by Mr Obama was part of a general presentation, to which all the Asean heads of government were present. His references to Burma, however, were the most important part of his remarks - for Burma, for Asean and for outsiders.

After its meeting with the president, Asean showed its usual restraint. The US-Asean statement made no mention of political prisoners. With predictable faint-heartedness, the statement called on Burma to hold a free election. This is simply dodging the issue.

There are clear steps that Burma must take if it wants anyone to believe its election is free. Mr Obama stated the first one: release of all political prisoners. Mrs Suu Kyi has become the symbol of the suffering and brutality caused by the military dictators since 1962. But thousands of Burmese are imprisoned today for nothing more dangerous than peaceful opposition to the army junta and its government. So long as one of them remains locked up, the planned election cannot be free.

Mrs Suu Kyi has spent most of her life locked up since she had the audacity to win the only free election in recent Burmese history, in 1990. She is the clear leader of the loyal opposition in Burma. This is because of her own bravery. But the generals also have tortured, jailed, intimidated, exiled (or worse) almost all members of the peaceful opposition who dared to speak out against the military regime.

It will be a major step if all the political prisoners are freed, and if Mrs Suu Kyi is allowed to speak openly to voters prior to the planned 2010 elections. It will not, however, be any guarantee of what Asean refers to vaguely as a "free election". The generals will also have to allow foreign observers if they wish the world to take their election seriously - the foreign media and non-governmental groups, if not a formal poll watch by, say, the United Nations. The voting will have to be free of intimidation.

Equally importantly, the entrenched and comfortable military junta must abide explicitly by the will of the voters. In 1990, the regime simply ignored the poll victory by Mrs Suu Kyi's party. That kept the army in power. It also more deeply convinced the domestic opposition and foreign friends of Burma that the country was so firmly under the control of despots that it had to be cut off from normal trade and diplomacy with the rest of the world.

The US president has made it clear to Mr Thein Sein and to all other Asean leaders that the United States is open to a change in attitude from the military leaders.

Next year's election is Burma's chance to regain the respect of the world. It is up to the generals to seize the opportunity.