No date has been announced, but the military regime is already in campaign mode, selecting candidates and doling out cash for the nation's first polls in 20 years
Election fever is already gripping Burma even though a date for the polls has yet to be announced. The election law which will govern the process is now expected to be published in May, with the elections at least six months away, according to Asian diplomats who closely follow events in Burma. "The elections will be held whether we like it or not," a young Arakanese student in Rangoon, Nyi Nyi said.
"We know we will have no choice but to vote, our only hope is that there will be some candidates who are not stooges of the military regime," he added. At the moment that seems a forlorn hope, though the main pro-democracy party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) has yet to make up its mind whether it will field candidates in this year's elections.
In the last elections, held on May 27, 1990, Aung San Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won convincingly, but Burma's military rulers never allowed them to form a civilian government. This time the generals are not planning to make the same mistake, and are tightly controlling everything to ensure they do not lose.
The military regime is now quietly preparing for the elections, selecting candidates and launching an unpublicised campaign. "Ministers are tight-lipped about the election, and keeping their political work low-key," said a government source in the new capital, Naypyidaw. But there is no doubt that the campaign to elect candidates supported by the military is well under way.
"State-controlled media - newspapers and television - is full of reports and photographs of government ministers inaugurating community and development projects, shaking hands with local leaders and handing out financial assistance," observed a Rangoon-based diplomat.
In fact, Than Shwe recently moved the usual weekly cabinet meeting back a day to Wednesday to allow ministers to travel in their respective areas between Thursday and Sunday handing out development aid and other largesse in order to win popular support, according to military sources in Naypyidaw.
"Clearly the military are now trying to win the hearts and minds of the people," an Asian diplomat dealing with Burma said.
"Everyone in Burma is talking about the elections," the Australian MP and Burma observer Janelle Saffin said after a recent private visit to the country. "Everyone is split on whether it's a good thing and whether they should participate - even businessmen are divided."
There is also growing nervousness and anxiety amongst many average Burmese, especially in Rangoon, because of the uncertainty surrounding the elections, according to doctors and psychologists inside Burma.
Little is being said by the regime, though the junta's top leader is clearly setting the ground rules for the election. "Democracy in Burma today is at a fledgling stage and still requires patient care and attention," Burma's top senior general Than Shwe told the country almost a year ago in his annual speech to mark Armed Forces Day.
Since then he has said little on the subject, except in January, when he warned potential political parties and politicians not to be foolish and to follow the rules.
"Plans are under way to hold elections in a systematic way this year. In that regard, the entire people have to make correct choices," he cautioned.
But these planned elections are already dominating everything in Burma, even without the election or political parties' laws being unveiled, or an official polling date.
All over Burma preparations are quietly being made for the nation's first elections in 20 years. Government administration has been put into suspended animation while government ministers and civil servants in effect have started political campaigning.
"No decision is being taken that does not relate to the election preparation," a senior UN official in Rangoon said.
Some crucial new projects can only start after the election, government ministers have told UN officials and international aid organisations working in Burma. European NGOs have only had their operations sanctioned until April, according to a European diplomat who monitors Burma from Bangkok.
Gen Than Shwe has put the powerful energy minister, Aung Thaung, in charge of the election campaign and providing funds for the pro-junta candidates, according to sources close to the senior general. "He's become the old man's bag man," a senior manager said. Although he is unlikely to run for office, he is the man that Than Shwe expects to master-mind the junta's management of the elections.
Aung Thaung also has been given a "secret mission" to get the support of the Rohingya for pro-junta candidates, and make sure that the two pro-junta parties - the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) Party, and the National Unity Party (NUP) - secure the popular vote, said a government official.
"The electoral laws are now 97% complete," Burma's foreign minister Nyan Win recently told his Indonesian counterpart, Marty Natalegawa, at a meeting of the regional bloc, Asean, in Hanoi. "So, I think the elections would be most probably in the second half of the year," he said.
Beijing, Burma's closest ally, also believes it will be some time in the last three months of this year, according to Chinese diplomats. The polls will be on Oct 10, 2010, according to government sources in the Burmese capital of Naypyidaw.
And only 10 political parties will be allowed to run, the Burmese prime minister, Thein Sein told his Asian counterparts at the Asean Summit in Hua Hin last October, according an Indonesian diplomat at the briefing. But there was no mention of Aung San Suu Kyi or the NLD, he added.
Many people are convinced that it will be on 10-10-10 because of the military regime's obsession with numerology. In the past the country's military made many key decisions on the basis of what astrologers had decreed as auspicious or significant dates, including the 1990 election date and the mass move to the new capital. That is a Sunday - the day the polls will be held because it is the usual weekly rest day. But while the election is certain now to be held in October or November - after this year's rainy season - the current favourite date may just be a hoax, warned Justin Wintle, a Burma specialist and author of the Aung San Suu Kyi's biography, Perfect Hostage.
Until the election laws are made public, there is little potential political players can do but bide their time.
Until then, no one knows how the election will be conducted, and more importantly who will be competing. Officially there are no political parties registered to stand candidates in the election - this can only happen after the political parties' law is passed and an electoral commission established to oversee the campaign and the polls.
"The political parties and election laws will be revealed at the last minute even though we understand they have been completed for some time," said Win Min, a Burmese academic based at Chiang Mai University. "They want to keep any potential opposition wrong-footed and not allow them time to organise."
The last time elections were held, the electoral law was made public 20 months before the elections.
The junta leaders are anxious to avoid making that mistake again. But 20 years on Burma is a very different country than it was then. Repression, harassment and economic decay have left many Burmese bewildered and angrier than ever at the military, though whether this will be translated into a strong anti-government vote at the polls remains an open question.
"Why should we contest these elections - the military will tightly control everything," said Zin Linn, a spokesman for the exiled Burmese pro-democracy movement. "How can there be free and fair elections, when many of our leaders are in prison for their political activities. The constitution was forced on us - written by them and then everyone was coerced to vote for it in a sham referendum [in May 2008]," he said.
So far the NLD has not decided to run in the elections, but are leaving their options open, according to senior NLD sources in Rangoon. "Contesting the election would mean accepting the new constitution, which is undemocratic, and negating the election results of 1990," said Zin Linn.
"That would be difficult for the NLD leaders to do."
But diplomats and activists that have contact with the NLD leadership say the die is not yet cast. "The NLD is certainly preparing for possible participation in the elections," said Ms Saffin, after her discussion with the NLD in Rangoon.
Many believe the NLD will have no option but to run, as the electoral laws will only allow parties to be registered if they contest the polls. "We would have to stand candidates then, or face extinction," said Than Htun, the spokesman for the exiled National Coalition Government of Burma in the United States.
It is a certainty however that that Aung San Suu Kyi, who is still under house arrest, will not be allowed to participate in the elections. The Interior Minister, Gen Maung Oo recently told a gathering of civil servants near Naypyidaw that the pro-democracy leader would be released in November - around the time her detention is due to finish.
She was recently sentenced to 18 months house arrest for infringing the country's security laws by allegedly allowing an unwanted intruder, the American John Yettaw, to swim across the lake behind her residence and enter her house. She has appealed against the verdict and is waiting for the Supreme Court to make its decision. It seems certain the charismatic Nobel peace laureate will remain in custody until after the election.
"The announcement of Aung San Suu Kyi's possible release in November is not politically significant since the elections would already be finished before she is freed," Win Tin, a senior NLD leader, told journalists in Rangoon recently. The Thai foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, said in Davos last week that Mrs Suu Kyi would probably be released around election time. "Around that time ... maybe a day after or a day before," he said.
Most people in Burma, though, are less than enthusiastic about the approaching election. Many believe that the elections are simply a means for the military to pretend that they have moved to democratic civilian rule. Under the constitution, a quarter of the seats are already reserved for army officers.
Over the past year or so junior officers have been given intensive instruction in political and economic matters as part of their senior officer training courses to prepare them for possible service as military MPs, according to Burmese military sources. Many of them who have attended the prestigious officers school, the National Defence College, are now earmarked to take up positions in the new parliament. As many as 2,000 soldiers may be assigned to parliamentary work in the national and provincial assemblies.
"There no chance that any civilian government after the elections will have real power," said the former British ambassador to Rangoon, Martin Moreland.
He was based in Burma during the 1988 mass pro-democracy demonstrations and witnessed the 1990 elections. "Than Shwe is unlikely to retire, more likely he will copy his predecessor, Ne Win, and remain the ultimate authority behind the scenes," he added.
The elections this year will not result in a transfer of power, whether Aung San Suu Kyi or her party runs, according to Chinese diplomats who follow Burma closely. "Things will remain the same, there will be no change in political power in Naypyidaw," one senior Chinese government official said.
Even though the parties have not yet been formed, nor officially have candidates been chosen to run for office in 2010, the military government is preparing the ground for the campaign and the election. Businessmen with close connections to the regime have been told they must support the pro-government candidates and provide funds for their campaigns. So detailed are the initial plans that the junta has allocated specific electorates to certain businessmen and demanded their financial backing.
"We cannot afford to lose this election," Burma's prime minister, Gen Thein Sein, told some of the leading businessmen last year. "Otherwise we have wasted the last 20 years for nothing," he concluded, according to Western diplomats with close connections to the Burmese business community.
But fixing the elections to get the desired result still poses major problems for the military leaders.
Those who stand will have to attract the popular vote - which in Burma now will be no mean feat, if the election is at all free and fair. At least a dozen ministers have been selected by Than Shwe to run for office. These people will have to resign from government to contest the elections.
The ministers have until April, the end of the financial year, to put their ministries in order. They have been instructed to make sure their books are balanced, creating a race to privatise much of the government's existing assets. More than 11,000 blocks of land and buildings, owned by various government ministries, are up for sale in Rangoon, according to one Western businessman.
At that point, an interim government, with only executive not legislative powers, will be formed to run the country for the six months up until the elections and then for around another six months afterwards before the newly elected parliament meets.
"It will take the regime several weeks or months to tally the votes across the nation and finalise the results," said Mr Moreland. "That was what happened in 1990."
The new peoples' assembly is also unlikely to convene before April next year as the new parliament building in Naypidaw will not be finished for at least another year, a Burmese construction manager working on the project, Pe Tun, said.
In the coming weeks there will be a major shake-up of the military and the government. Hundreds, if not thousands, of senior officers retiring to make way for the new generation of younger officers, as Than Shwe intends to rigidly enforce the retirement rule of 60 years.
After the political parties law is unveiled, the mass community organisation, the USDA - set up by Than Shwe more than 15 years ago to support the military government at the grassroots - is expected to announce the formation of a political party that will contest the elections.
Ministers who have been forced into the political arena will join the party, according to military sources. The National Unity Party, though, is seen as part of the new era.
The junta chief has instructed soldiers and government officials to see the NUP as "a sister to the army", said a close confidant of the top generals.
The outcome of the elections is far from certain, according to some Asian diplomats. "The race is certainly on, but as the weeks roll by, the regime is increasingly worried that they may not be able to completely control the results," said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.
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