The latest El Nino is expected to produce severe water shortages in some areas, probably lowering the yield of the country's No1 export
Serm Sornwiset tried desperately to start a water pump on his farm to draw pond water for rice saplings withering in his field, but the pump had run out of gas again. Over the past few weeks, the 50-year-old farmer has used pumped water from three ponds in the hope of keeping the saplings alive and earning extra income from the sale of the harvest this dry season. The problem is that the ponds are only half full, and there is no guarantee he will have enough water to ensure a good yield.
"I'm afraid now that I will not have enough water to water my rice. If that happens, I may have to draw water from Lam Tao stream nearby," said Mr Serm, who is from Samran Niwat village in Roi Et's Kaset Wisai district. He also realises that other villagers are planning to use stream water this dry season as a back-up.
Mr Serm is one of many farmers in the Northeast trying to grow rice in the off-season, a strategy farm authorities are trying to discourage due to looming water shortages this season. Agriculture officials and climate experts warn that the El Nino weather pattern is developing, which is expected to lead to less rainfall and water shortages in the coming months.
Farmers like Mr Serm may suffer more than other farmers as they grow rice in areas without irrigation, meaning there is no extra water when nature fails them.
According to climate experts, El Nino has been developing in the Pacific Ocean since October. The phenomenon is the result of unusually warm sea temperatures in the middle and the eastern parts of the Pacific. When the trade winds in the upper air system over the equator blow less strongly, less moisture from the ocean is brought to the mainland in the western part of the Pacific, including Southeast Asia. This results in less rainfall and in many instances severe drought.
"The effects of the phenomenon usually follow three or six months after its first appearance. So, Thailand will likely feel the affects from this month on," said Anond Snidvongs, director of the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (Start) regional research centre for Southeast Asia located in Bangkok.
"The effects will likely be felt through the rainy season, being more or less severe depending on the additional weather conditions caused by a similar phenomenon developing in the Indian Ocean around April."
Dr Anond said this year's El Nino is likely to be as harsh as the one in 2003, when the country faced severe water shortages.
The Metrological Department has been monitoring the phenomenon and found that El Nino grew stronger in December, with an increase of the sea temperature in the Pacific Ocean of 1-2C above the normal level.
Climate models developed by the department have projected that the ocean temperature will continue to increase until the middle of the year. Thailand will likely experience an increase in average temperature and have less rainfall.
In order to handle times of projected limited water resources, the Irrigation Department (ID) usually plans in advance how to use the water stored in reservoirs nationwide, especially during the dry season.
As of November, the ID estimated that around 35 billion cubic metres of water was stored in reservoirs.
The department plans to draw around 20.7 billion cubic metres of the water for use this dry season. About 1.8 billion cubic metres is set aside for (domestic) consumption, and up to 13 billion cubic metres for farming.
Since November, about 9.3 billion cubic metres has been used, leaving around 11 billion cubic metres of the amount set aside for use over the next three months.
As of Jan 24, when water supplies were replenished by rainfall, reservoirs nationwide had about 28.4 billion cubic metres of usable water, accounting for 39% of the country's overall water storage capacity.
The Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry has tried to restrict off-season farming, allowing only about 12 million rai of farmland to access irrigation water. About 9.5 million rai would be allowed to use irrigation water for rice, and around three million rai for vegetables.
But farmers often don't follow such guidelines. Recently, the Rice Department issued its first warning to farmers, especially those in the Central region, to be more cautious when drawing depleted irrigation water for rice farming.
In the farming areas where there is no
irrigation water, the situation is even more difficult to deal with.
In Kaset Phisai district, which produces high quality jasmine rice, one farm official said farmers in Thun Kula Rong Hai had rushed to grow off-season rice more than a month ago. The farmland allocated for off-season rice is already 10,000 rai, 10 times what it was the previous year.
He said farmers usually only grow rice in the wet season. But a few years ago they started to grow off-season rice after the price climbed to over 10,000 baht a tonne. In the district where he works, the practice started last year, he said.
``Officials are worried now that farmers who are growing off-season rice face a water shortage. The farmers have only natural water sources like streams to rely on while severe drought is looming. It has actually been felt here already,'' he said.
``We have talked to the farmers about this, but they said they wanted to try,'' said the official, adding it is difficult to project the consequences. ``Even from one tambon to another, drought conditions are already different.''
WATER IS LIMITING FACTOR
Forty years ago, the Green Revolution swept the world and helped the country overcome low rice productivity levels with new irrigation techniques and other improvements, raising the yield and quality of rice. Since 1981 Thailand has always been among the world's top rice exporters.
The largest portion of the country's annual rice yield, about 23 million tonnes on average, is usually from the seasonal rice growing area, which covers about 57 million rai. However, 42 million rai are located outside irrigation zones.
The Co-ordination Center for Global Warming and Climate Change, or T-Globe, sponsored by the state-funded Thailand Research Fund, has been studying the impact of climate change on the country's farm sector.
Its first study, which looks into Thailand's climate history, found that El Nino is becoming more frequent and lasting longer. It also found that the average temperature during the past 50 years has increased around 0.8C. The average annual rainfall has decreased in the Central and the Eastern regions, while increasing in the North and the Northeast.
Any relationship between these factors, however, has not yet been established to give a more comprehensive picture of the country's overall climate situation.
In the latest global climate assessment in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that by 2050, fresh water in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia, particularly in large river basins, will become less available.
Dr Anond said it is time for policy-makers to take weather anomalies as well as the changing climate into account when planning national development policies.
``The impacts are being felt in local areas now, and that should be taken into consideration,'' he said.
``Locals may not know what it is, but they know it is happening, and it is different from what they have ever experienced before,'' said Dr Anond. ``Some locals are trying to help themselves, adapting to the changing weather. We can learn together in formulating the policies.''
Yukol Limlamthong, permanent secretary to the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry, said in order to deal with the changing environment farming practices needed to be overhauled. Currently, farmers generally grow rice three times a year, which puts a strain on limited farm resources, including soil and water.
``But to change farmers' practices is never easy,'' he said. ``This also depends on government policy; whether it wants farmers to grow less, which in turn, would affect the country's economy.''
Mr Yukol said the ministry was studying the concept of green agriculture, which aims to leave no farm waste. He said the ministry had assigned researchers to study how to reduce methane from decomposition in rice fields, for instance.
As for this dry season, the ministry is trying to increase water supplies through methods such as rain-making, he said.
At present, the RID has prepared up to 375 mobile water pumps and around 300 water-trucks to help farmers get water in 24 provinces including Roi Et. The more critical problem is where to get the water.
Mr Serm's rice fields are near Lam Tao stream. The stream's water level has already dropped to his hip. A few villagers walk into the middle of the stream and fish.
``Even with the water in Lam Tao stream, I am afraid that it will not be enough for us all,'' said Mr Serm.
The Office of Agriculture Economics, meanwhile, has posted on its website that the price of export rice in Asia will increase to 19,900 baht a tonne from 17,000 baht last year.
This is partly due to lower rice yields in countries like India and the Philippines, caused by drought, flooding, and tropical cyclones.
According to the same office's statistics last year, however, farmers managed to sell their rice at the prices ranging from 9,200 baht to 10,000 baht per tonne.
Farmers adapting to harsher conditions
Wattana Sangphakdee's wind turbine blows in the wind, but it doesn't produce any power. The turbine, made from shabby aluminum plates and wooden poles, helps suck up water from an underground well through a connecting pipe.
It's a modest contraption, but the 44-year-old Mr Wattana said it is crucial to the survival of his crops during dry spells.
As weather patterns are more unpredictable in Yasothon province, where there is hardly any irrigation water from reservoirs, necessity has become the mother of invention for farmers adapting to the conditions. They have come up with innovative ideas to preserve and use water and also switched to more sustainable farming methods, which have provided more options to earn a living.
Farmers in the province have noticed more severe drought in recent years and the late arrival of rain in the wet season, when their seasonal rice crops are usually growing.
In 2007, rain came to the rice fields very late after first falling in early June, Mr Wattana said. It was supposed to return in early August, but arrived in the middle of September, leaving the rice stalks withering. Mr Wattana could harvest only five tonnes of rice from his 19 rai of farmland, half of his expected yield.
A year later, some farmers got together and discussed the best way to combat the harsh weather conditions. They agreed that they should have their own water sources and tried to adjust their farming practice to cope with limited water supplies.
About 57 farming families borrowed money from the water management fund, supported by Oxfam and the Earth Net Foundation, which promotes organic farming in the area.
They used the money to develop new water sources on their farmland. Some chose to concentrate only on ponds, while others preferred diversified water sources on their farmland.
Mr Wattana borrowed 25,000 baht to dig a new pond and build the wind turbine to access an underground well. He also set aside some of his land for a vegetable garden.
With a new water supply, his rice crop stood a better chance of surviving in 2008 and the vegetable garden helped keep the household fed, which was another way to save on the family's food bill.
"At least it helps us get through the harsh times when water is scarce. It is better than doing nothing," said Mr Wattana, who is from Nong Lerng Village.
Manoon Phoopha, Mr Wattana's neighbour and a pioneer of alternative farming practices, has gone further. He dedicated half of his 10-rai plot of farmland to a new water source and a vegetable garden, leaving only about 5.5 rai for growing rice.
Mr Manoon nurtured his land with organic fertiliser and water. In 2008, his yield from the 5.5-rai plot was almost three tonnes of rice, which comes to about 545 kilogrammes per rai, much better than the average seasonal rice harvest of about 350kg per rai.
Mr Manoon said adapting to the changing climate is not only about digging a pond. He said it is also about how to fit life around the environment. He said the government often misinterprets this and simply comes up with new water sources for farmers. But this often proves useless as farmers still practice antiquated farming methods that no longer fit the changing environment. In particular, he added, monocrop agriculture cannot secure farmers' survival.
"Digging a pond is easy. But can you really farm and survive afterwards? This is something that you need to think through," said Mr Manoon.
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