The good news is that most multinational companies should complete their staffing reductions by the middle of next year at the latest
Although stock market rebounds have lifted spirits and built up hopes of a better economic performance next year, the outlook in the job market remains disturbing because large headcount reductions are still taking place around the world. What's more, Thailand is not being spared, said Anthony Ainsworth, the director of RGC Executive Search in Bangkok.
The good news is that most multinational companies should complete their staffing reductions by the middle of next year at the latest.
While people are losing their jobs through no fault of their own, either because their departments have been downsized or some functions eliminated, someone else has probably had to take on the role of the laid-off colleague, leading to people being overloaded.
"You take one person out of a team of three and you are down to two, so that is an increase of workload by 50% on each worker," said Mr Ainsworth. "Some may get an improved job title but the reality is there usually isn't much more money."
He said the worldwide headcount culling had led to gaps in developing in certain processes and even in entire workflows. As a result, some corporations could face dangers in the new year because if the economy does improve they are going to be under a massive strain.
"They can probably work at the moment, with a subdued demand, but if you see a real push for growth businesses are going to struggle."
Should this happen, management will come under pressure to rehire the people they laid off earlier and if they do not do so they may even lose some of their more talented workers.
Although the job market will continue to be tough, Mr Ainsworth feels there is still demand for very good people who have strong CVs. However, people need to think very carefully about changing jobs or deciding whether to go back to a multinational, because six months down the road their department might disappear.
"I'm not saying we have a whole lot of companies laying waste to their organisations, but they are still demanding reductions."
Mr Ainsworth says no one is really immune from headcount reductions and that ultimately the decisions of multinationals rest with regional and global headquarters.
"It's not only sales and marketing that are being hit. It's basically across the board, people have to produce the numbers, so when you hear and see big numbers - like, 'We are reducing headcount by 10,000 or 20,000' - you can bet your bottom dollar that Thailand also has to produce the numbers."
However, he said, the widespread reduction of staff salaries in Thailand this year in order to cut costs is more of a local strategy. Multinationals typically opt instead to close functions and slash positions.
"If you cut salaries you affect the morale of the whole company," said Mr Ainsworth, while conceding that layoffs also affect morale.
"There is always the question of who's next. So there's no easy way out, but if you go into salary reduction you really do kill morale throughout a company once and forever.
"But I think companies are actually trying to move ahead now, and you will see some that have put salaries on hold will be looking to give pay increases."
In his opinion Thai companies are very reluctant to cut fat from their organisations as opposed to multinationals, which are much quicker at what they see as a strategic move.
"Thai companies tend to believe in the longer term, but financially that doesn't always work out - a lot of it is really driven by culture. The cultural differences might mean that Thai companies wait before they look at headcount reduction."
While those who survive job purges would appear to have strengths if they enter the job market, Mr Ainsworth remarked that just because someone has lost their job it doesn't mean they cannot perform; many were simply in the wrong situation at the wrong time.
He said the current conditions in the job market in fact present an opportunity for Thai companies to hire some of the talent that previously worked for multinationals who have a lot to offer in terms of experience and performing up to international standards.
But there is no point bringing someone in from another company, he added, if they are going to have their wings clipped and not be able to give proper input to the decision-making process. They will just feel constrained.
He said the job markets in some regional countries have bounced back, with Singapore and Hong Kong being prime examples. "Vietnam is reasonably okay, there are a lot of different things going on there - it's quite hard to give a straight, clear picture although there is a sort of stress on the banking sector."
Mr Ainsworth said Thailand looks to be trying to give an impression that it has not been affected by the global economic storm, but in fact some statistics indicate that it has been quite badly affected.
But some of the policies of the government and the behaviour of officials and people in general seem to reflect that nothing has changed.
This means that next year is going to be a difficult one for this country, said Mr Ainsworth. "No one remembers if you come in second, it's winner take all. That's where the money is."
Mr Ainsworth said that job seekers will have to continue struggling because companies are going to be particularly fussy when it comes to recruitment.
At the same time, however, companies are going to find out that they have to pay for quality, as people are not going to shift jobs just for a nice title. There is an inherent risk in changing jobs.
He advises those who are still employed to put their heads down and do a proper job and not to expect much in terms of performance bonus unless they are truly exceptional.
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